HDZ and SDP Without Chance for Assembling Cabinet?

If HSS-HSLS do not decrease their demands, Great coalition or repeated elections are prospectable, analysts believe.

Croatian President Stjepan Mesic is on an official visit to Brussels where he will surely, whether he wants to or not, have to answer to questions about the political situation in Croatia. Perhaps this will make him think and he will come back to Croatia will the final name of the mandator. While Mesic is abroad, all the pawns are in their places in the country, all cards open and all scenarios acceptable are open for the new cabinet.

“HSS-HSLS main culprits of early elections”

Professor Ivan Rimac believes there is no probable scenario. None of the parties have any chance of assembling the government, Rimac points out.

- If new elections are held, the Croatian Peasants` Party (HSS) and the Croatian Social-Liberal Party (HSLS) might lose a large number of voters because everyone will hold them responsible, and this might cost them dearly – Ivan Rimac says.

Rimac believes Social Democratic Party (SDP)`s Zoran Milanovic and the Croatian Democratic Union`s (HDZ) Ivo Sanader have voters with their active attitude, both are keen on defending their positions and convince voters the political idea which they represent is the right one and that they have voted for that actually, even though it might not be true.

Great coalition still possible?

Andjelko Milardovic, on the other hand, sees four scenarios are realistic:

1) Left centre cabinet

2) Right centre cabinet

3) Great HDZ and SDP coalition

4) Early elections

He grounds his scenarios on the Constitution, electoral results, programme figures and their preferences. In this case, the most important figures, Milardovic believes, are their political programmes as well. From demands of HSS and HSLS, there will be most problems with the Protected Ecological Fishery Zone (ZERP). They will discuss this law at the beginning of next year, when Milardovic forecasts the first cabinet crisis.

- It`s a shame large and most important parties in Croatia will not decide on the new cabinet, but small ones, which have acted as blackmailers from the beginning – Milardovic says.

He believes strenuous negotiations and talks will follow, and the result depends only on negotiating skills.

- The yellow-green coalition [HSLS-HSS] is now the main co-creator of the Croatian political scene. If they continue with the rigidness which they promote, they will hardly assemble the cabinet.

Milardovic does not hold the great coalition to be realistic neither, because there are always early elections. But, they cost.

- If they have 100, 200 million kuna for new early elections, let them go for it. In such a relation, a great coalition would still be the more acceptable alternative – Milardovic concludes.