England Need Help, Croatia & Russia Don't

When the draw for the Euro qualifying groups was made, the general view - especially in England - was that Croatia and England were the best bets from Group E to reach the finals in Austria and Switzerland.

Now, with just two matchdays to go, those two are still in the frame, but while Croatia need just one point to qualify, England's destiny is out of their own hands, their hopes hanging by a thread with Russia poised to edge Steve McClaren's team out of contention and into the international wilderness.

Croatia have conducted an outstanding, unbeaten campaign under the tactically astute Slaven Bilic, with striker Eduardo da Silva contributing ten of their 25 goals. In contrast, England have dropped crucial points - and Russia, guided by the wily Dutch coach Guus Hiddink, have taken advantage of those lapses to put themselves in a strong position to accompany Croatia through to the finals.

The most dramatic match in the Group was in Moscow last month when England were leading Russia (whom they had recently beaten 3-0 at Wembley) by a goal to nil with 20 minutes to go. Had they held on to that lead, both they and Croatia would have qualified that night,

But what McClaren described as five minutes of madness completely changed the landscape of the group. Russian substitute Pavluchenko equalised with a 69th minute penalty, then added a second in the 73rd to claim both the three points and control over their own fate.

While the Russian victory delayed Croatia's near-certain qualification - they need only a point in FYR Macedonia on Saturday or in England four days later to be sure - it also moved Hiddink's side to within two points of England with a game in hand over the Three Lions.

This means that Russia will qualify if they beat Israel and Andorra - even if England conclude their campaign with victory over Croatia at Wembley next Wednesday.

It has to be assumed that Russia will triumph against Andorra - England cannot expect any favours from a country who are on a run of 28 consecutive Euro qualifying defeats, and whose record in Group E reads played 10, lost 10, scored two, conceded 39.

So if England are to stand any chance, they are relying on Israel. If the Israelis beat Russia on Saturday, then England need only to draw (or win) against Croatia to guarantee qualification. If Russia draw in Israel, then England will need to beat Croatia in their final match to go through, given that a Russian win in Andorra is a near certainty.

If Russia win in Israel - and it is rumoured that Chelsea's Russian owner Roman Abramovich has offered the players hefty financial incentives to do so - they will be one point ahead of England with one match, against whipping boys Andorra, to play.

There is another scenario, albeit an unlikely one.

If Croatia should lose in FYR Macedonia, then an England win over the Croats by a three-goal margin would put them above their rivals. A 2-0 win would also be enough, but a two-goal winning margin in which England conceded a goal (such as a 3-1 victory) would not be enough, because Croatia's away goal would give them the head-to-head advantage.

It seems improbable that Croatia, who have not lost yet in ten qualifiers (won eight, drawn two), would stumble to two defeats in five days with the prize so near.

Of course, if Russia drop points against Israel then any England win over Croatia will do the trick for McClaren.

It is tempting to identify their defeat by Russia in Moscow as the pivotal result in England's campaign, but in fact the damage was done a year ago, when a disastrous goalless draw at home to FYR Macedonia was followed by a tactical shambles in Zagreb that saw Croatia win convincingly 2-0. England again did themselves no favours in March when they were held to a goalless draw in Tel-Aviv by Israel.

Now McClaren must hope the Russians find Israel as difficult to break down as his team did. The attention on England has tended to detract from the Russian campaign, but they have lost just once (at Wembley), taken points off the Croats both home and away (two 0-0 draws), and earned six victories. Four of the five goals they've conceded were against England, so in their other eight matches they've conceded just one (a 1-1 draw with Israel at home).

Israel's own hopes were ended when they went down 3-0 at Wembley against England, so they will be playing for national pride against Russia - but having to do so without playmaker Yossi Benayoun, whose injury was as big a blow to England as it was to Israel.

The Israelis look likely to finish in fourth place, above FYR Macedonia (5th), Estonia (6th) and Andorra (7th).