Croatia: Ruling conservatives 'win polls' but government's fate uncertain

Prime minister Ivo Sanader’s ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party scored a narrow victory in Sunday’s parliamentary election. But it was uncertain whether he would be able to firm a new governing coalition.

The main campaign issues were corruption, the economy, and reforms needed for Euopean Union membership. Croatia began pre-entry talks with the EU in October 2005.

According to unofficial results, the HDZ won 60 seats in the 153-seat parliament, followed by the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) with 57 MPs.

Lagging behind was a coalitionmade up of the Croatian Peasants Party (HSS), the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS) with eight seats and the Croatian People’s Party (HNS) with seven.

The HDZ can still count on five seats representing Croats voting abroad, but analysts said the SDP stands an equally good chance of forming a coalition government with minor parties.

The SDP can count support from the HNS, several other minor parties and some of eight MPs representing minorities including three who represent Serbs. President Stipe Mesic said he would offer a mandate for new government to the party which represented proof that it can secure a 77-seat majority in parliament.

In proclaiming victory, Sanader said he was confident he would form a new government coalition, adding the election results were proof that his government perfromed well in the past four years.

But SDP president Zoran Milanovic said he had already started consultations with other parties’ leaders, vowing he had the capacity to form a new governing coalition. “We are talking to all who think that Croatia needs change, and a new, more honest and capable government,” Milanovic said.

Analysts said the results signalled that Croatia was moving towards a two-party system because all the minor parties received almost half the votes they got in the 2003 election. The biggest loser was the fa-right Croatian Party of Rights, which won only one seat, as compared to seven won in 2003.

Analysts said the election outcome reflected the fact that the HDZ and the SDP didn’t much differ on the key campaign issues, such as the economy, unemployment and social policies. Both supported Croatia’s drive towards joining the European Union and NATO.

Croatian newspapers reported on Monday that the next few days will see “fervent political trading” as the two leading parties tried to secure a parliamentary majority. Most most agreed that Sanader was in a slightly better position to do so.

Final election results are due to be released on 5 December.